A Note From Me from October 2025

Phoenix Real Estate Market Update: Rates, Inventory, and What to Expect Next

We’re stepping into an interesting moment in the Phoenix real estate market. Over the past few weeks, the Federal Reserve has signaled rate cuts, which has already begun to shift buyer behavior. At the same time, the temporary government shutdown has had ripple effects, particularly on VA, FHA, and USDA loans — programs many buyers rely on for more accessible financing. Layer in an unexpected increase in available listings (unusual for this late in the year) and we’re seeing a market that is active, dynamic, and worth watching closely.

Buyer Demand Is Picking Up

With mortgage rates trending downward, more buyers who had previously stepped to the sidelines are re-entering the market. For many, even a small rate reduction can improve affordability and monthly payment comfort. We’re feeling that return of buyer confidence — more showings, more inquiries, and in some cases, more multiple-offer situations.

More Listings Than Usual for This Season

Typically, October and November mark a slowdown in new listings as sellers wait for the spring season. This year, however, we’re seeing more homes hit the market. Some sellers are responding to improving buyer activity, while others are timing life events or capitalizing on a window where fewer competing listings have historically been available. For buyers, this means more choice and less pressure compared to peak-season conditions.

Impact of the Government Shutdown on FHA, VA, and USDA Loans

The temporary shutdown caused delays in processing these loans — especially where verifications and federal department clearances were required. While lenders have worked hard to keep transactions moving, some timelines have stretched. If you are buying or selling with one of these loan products, it’s important to:

• Build a bit of additional time into the contract.

• Work closely with a lender who is familiar with government-backed programs.

• Understand that communication is key — transparency helps keep everyone aligned.

These delays are not long-term disruptions, but they may continue to influence closing timelines over the next few weeks as agencies catch up.

What This Means for Buyers

This may be one of the best windows we’ve seen all year:

• Rates are softening

• Inventory is slightly up

• Competition is active but not overwhelming

Being prepared with pre-approval and clear expectations can put you in a strong position.

What This Means for Sellers

Buyer activity is returning, and well-presented homes are getting good attention. Pricing strategically — not aggressively — continues to be the most important factor in achieving the best outcome.

Bottom Line

The Phoenix market is adjusting — but not cooling. We are transitioning into a more balanced environment where both buyers and sellers have meaningful opportunities. If you or someone you know is thinking about making a move, this is an ideal time to have a conversation about strategy before the spring market brings additional competition, and I would love an introduction!